Swine flu children facing bed shortage

Published: Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:52:11

There could be a shortage of intensive care beds for children in the UK with swine flu, experts have predicted. Research published ahead of print in the Archives of Disease in Childhood found the H1N1 virus resurges during the winter months but there may not be enough intensive care beds for children. According to the researchers over half of admissions to paediatric intensive care units(PICUs) are unplanned, and respiratory illness is the second largest cause of admission, accounting for around one in four cases. They said seasonal respiratory infections have already put added pressure on capacity.

Researchers from the University of Cambridge used a model to predict likely demand for critical care for the UK's current provision: 303 intensive care beds for children spread over 25 regional centres. They assumed an attack rate of 30 per cent, in line with Department of Health and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control recommendations; a minimum stay of five days in intensive care; and a pandemic lasting 12 weeks. From the data collected they estimated 3.8 per cent of the UK's under-15s admitted to hospital for swine flu would require critical care.

They said if the rate reached just two per cent, almost all the current capacity would be needed, and in some regional areas could struggle even more to cope with demand, such as in Wales and the south-east coast. The authors wrote: "Given that half of all critical care admissions are unplanned, there is little scope to cancel elective (planned) procedures. "And while very sick children in district general hospitals are ferried to specialist regional centres, these services will also come under pressure."

"It seems inevitable that PICUs will experience significant additional pressure this winter from admissions due to the pandemic," they conclude.

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